The flagging health of an aged Gulf Arab ruler has raised the spectre of a succession challenge by a deposed son seeking sway in a strategic corner of the US allied, oil-exporting United Arab Emirates. Sheikh Saqr al Qasimi, whose Ras Al Khaimah emirate has been a source of occasional unrest for the UAE, has been in hospital for around a month, officials say. Believed to be in his 90s, the sheikh has ruled the emirate for over 60 years. Qasimi’s son Sheikh Saud is ruling the emirate in his father’s stead but is facing a challenge from his older half brother Sheikh Khalid, deposed as crown prince in 2003. “Khalid is trying to exploit the health of his father,” said Ahmed Mansour, a blogger and commentator from Ras al-Khaimah.” There are some groups still hoping Khalid will come back.” Many observers say they do not expect Khalid to win power, although his quest may complicate any transition in what is likely the least stable emirate in the seven-member UAE federation that includes business hub Dubai and oil-exporting Abu Dhabi. In 2003, the UAE federal government sent tanks into the emirate to subdue protests after the popular Khalid’s ouster. The closest emirate to Iran, Ras al-Khaimah sits on the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the world’s traded oil passes. Some analysts point to the emirate, which produced one of the September 11 hijackers, as a scene of growing Islamism, although most say security risks are exaggerated. Abu Dhabi, seat of UAE federal union, has left the emirate to sort out its affairs even as Khalid’s efforts intensify. “He and his supporters are going around town meeting left, right, and center trying to revive the issue,” a UAE-based observer familiar with the matter said, declining to be named. Sheikh Saqr’s government has given no reason for Khalid’s 2003 ousting, but a spokesman said the sheikh felt Saud’s rule was more in the emirate’s interest. Emirati analysts say Saud, a businessman, capitalised on Khalid’s purported opposition to the US-led invasion of Iraq, though Khalid’s spokesmen say the allegation is untrue. Ras Al Khaimah seems a distant relative to Dubai’s glitzy skyscrapers and Abu Dhabi’s manicured lawns. Its weathered buildings squat along the sparkling Gulf waters, in sharp contrast to the elegant new beach resorts dotting the coastline. Crown prince Saud has tried to make Ras Al Khaimah a large real estate and investment zone like Dubai. He appeared to be succeeding, but the debt crisis hit the emirate hard. Meanwhile Khalid, using Facebook, YouTube, and a US public relations firm, has challenged some of the emirates’ business ties to Iran and suggested it may be a “rogue state in the UAE”. His media-savvy campaign is unusual for the conservative Gulf, where politics are typically decided behind closed doors. Jason Kinney of public relations firm California Strategies said Khalid hoped to highlight “issues surrounding the current regime in Ras Al Khaimah which affect the security and stability of the region”. The firm lists several articles suggesting that Ras Al Khaimah was a potential haven for al Qaeda or that its port maybe under Iran’s influence, invoking concerns that nuclear materials could pass through there to the US foe. “This is a campaign based on false stories. It is baseless,” a spokesman from Saud’s government said. Some analysts however, like Christopher Davidson of Oxford Analytica, agreed the emirate faces growing Islamist sentiments. Last year, Ras Al Khaimah lost a chance to host the America’s Cup after one team contended the site could pose a security risk for US sailors due to possible militant attacks. Officially, the locale was found to violate race rules. But Theodore Karasik, a security analyst at UAE-based INEGMA, said there was a federal security presence in the emirate to mitigate any risks, and that its Iranian business ties were normal for the UAE. Khalid’s campaign was also unlikely to win him any points with the federal government, which would not appreciate hints of an al Qaeda presence in the country just as it is trying to rebuild investor confidence following Dubai’s debt crisis. “Ras Al Khaimah isn’t a standalone country. It is part of the UAE. Putting it under fire is not just burning his brother, it’s bringing Abu Dhabi’s feet close to the fire,” Mansour said. But Davidson said it may be hard for Abu Dhabi to ignore the popularity Khalid is still believed to enjoy among locals. Sipping a coffee inside the sleek new mall built under Saud, one local resident, Abdel Rahman, weighed the odds: “People here love Khalid. But we are getting used to Saud. He developed this place ... I can’t imagine he won’t hold on to power.”